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Friday, September 23, 2022

Italy faces continued a population decline, no indication of a rebound expected

Italy faces continued a population decline, no indication of a rebound expected




By 2049, it is predicted that twice as several residents will die each year than be born, which translates to 788,000 deaths against 390,000 born   per year.


Italy’s National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) has certified that Italy’s population shrank below 60 million for the 1st time in years in 2021. Moving ahead, there is no any indication of a rebound in the foreseeable future. ISTAT, while citing freshly issued census data, has said that the 2021 census had counted 59.2 million residents, which is down from 60.3 million in year 2020.


As reported by Xinhua news agency, 2021 even witnessed a negative balance of 100,000 residents compared to the previous census. What’s more? The projections for the future are also more dramatic. The ISTAT expects Italy’s population to shrink to 57.9 million in year 2030, 54.2 million in 2050, and 47.7 million in 2070.


It is trusted that by 2049, twice as several residents will die each year than be born, which translates to 788,000 deaths compared to 390,000 borns per year.


Currently , there have been around 3 people aged between 15 and 64 (active working years) for everyone outside this bracket. By 2050, it is expected this ratio will be 1-to-1. It is even estimated that four out of 5 Italian cities will have a declining population within 10 years, and the number will be 9 out of 10 among rural communities.


Albeit, there is a silver lining as ISTAT expects the number of families to improve, but their size will continue to shrink. By 2041, only 1 in 4 families will have children, it is predicted.


Nonetheless, these trends will surely have implications for the country’s long-term economic growth, pension policies, geopolitical influence, and social factors.


300,000 small farmers at danger 

Not just the population decrease , the amount of fruits and vegetables being consumed by Italians in the 1st half of 2022 is even at its lowest level since the beginning of the century. The condition has put some 300,000 small farmers at risk, leading to long-term health consequences for consumers.


The sales of fruits and vegetables have been affected not only by higher prices sparked by rising fuel costs, but even  by a drop in production, which was caused by an ungenerally hot and dry summer, and a reduction in overall household incomes.

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